GATLINBURG, Tenn. (Smokies.LIVE Storm Center) — Snow chances across the Great Smoky Mountains are becoming more interesting as forecast models increasingly point toward a significant cooldown and the potential for mountain snow Friday and Saturday, Nov. 13-14.
Meteorologists are gaining confidence in a much colder pattern developing across East Tennessee and western North Carolina late next week. While snowfall amounts remain uncertain, the setup is becoming more favorable for snow at higher elevations of the Great Smoky Mountains.
The National Weather Service in Morristown is also highlighting the potential for higher-elevation snow as colder air moves into the region behind a cold front. Forecasters say additional rounds of colder air and northwest winds could help create conditions favorable for mountain snowfall.
A Cold Front Will Set the Stage
The expected change begins Wednesday night into Thursday as rain moves across the region. Colder air will follow the front, with another push of cold air potentially reinforcing the chill into Friday and Saturday.
One of the biggest things to watch is the development of northwest flow. When cold air moves across the mountains, moisture can be forced upward along the western slopes, producing snow showers even after the main cold front has moved through.
This type of weather pattern can favor the highest elevations of the Smokies, particularly along the Tennessee-North Carolina state line.
What Areas Should Be Watching?
The highest elevations of Great Smoky Mountains National Park will be the primary areas to watch, including:
- Clingmans Dome and Mount LeConte.
- Newfound Gap and the higher elevations along U.S. 441.
- The higher ridges of western North Carolina.
- Mountain communities at higher elevations in Swain, Haywood and Jackson counties.
Lower elevations, including Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville and Knoxville, are not currently the primary focus for accumulating snow.
What About Snowfall Amounts?
It is still too early to put numbers on potential snowfall. The exact timing of the coldest air, available moisture and strength of northwest flow will determine how much snow develops.
The ground is also relatively warm following recent fall temperatures. That could limit accumulation, especially on lower-elevation roads and other surfaces. Higher elevations will have a better opportunity for snow to accumulate if temperatures and precipitation rates cooperate.
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