GATLINBURG, Tenn. (Smokies.LIVE Storm Center) — A significant change in weather is taking shape across the Great Smoky Mountains, with temperatures expected to tumble late this week and the potential for the first accumulating mountain snow of the season becoming increasingly likely.
Meteorologists are gaining confidence in a strong cold-air push arriving Thursday night and continuing into the weekend, bringing a transition from rain to snow across the higher elevations of East Tennessee and western North Carolina.
The National Weather Service in Morristown is highlighting the potential for snow showers, particularly across the higher terrain Thursday night through Saturday. Forecasters say accumulating snow is becoming likely at the highest elevations.
A Major Temperature Change Is Coming
Rain is expected to develop Wednesday night and continue into Thursday as a cold front approaches. Behind the front, much colder air will pour into the Tennessee and North Carolina mountains.
By Friday, temperatures will be running well below normal, with some higher elevations struggling to get above freezing. Gusty northwest winds will add to the chilly conditions.
The cold will stick around through the weekend, with freezing temperatures possible across much of the region by Saturday morning and again Sunday morning.
Mountain Snow: Where Could It Fall?
The biggest weather story will develop behind the cold front.
As winds turn northwest, colder air will move across the mountains, helping produce additional moisture and snow showers along the higher elevations. This is known as northwest flow, a pattern that can favor snowfall along the Tennessee-North Carolina mountain ridges.
The highest elevations of Great Smoky Mountains National Park will be the primary focus, including Mount LeConte, Clingmans Dome, Newfound Gap and the surrounding mountain peaks.
Higher elevations of Haywood, Swain and Jackson counties in western North Carolina will also need to be watched closely.
Some of the higher mountain communities could see their first accumulating snowfall of the season, while lower elevations are more likely to experience cold rain or occasional flurries.
How Much Snow Could Fall?
This is where some uncertainty remains.
The overall pattern is becoming more favorable for mountain snow, but the amount of available moisture will determine how much actually accumulates. The timing of the coldest air and the strength of northwest flow will also play important roles.
At this point, it is too early to establish reliable snowfall totals. Even with colder air arriving, snow accumulation will be highly dependent on elevation and precipitation rates.
Travelers should also remember that temperatures can be significantly colder at the highest elevations than in Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge and Sevierville. Mountain roads, particularly Newfound Gap Road, could experience rapidly changing conditions if snow develops.
The Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be one of the more significant temperature changes of the season so far.
We are going from relatively mild November temperatures to a much colder pattern, with mountain snow increasingly becoming part of the forecast.
Snow lovers across the Smokies have a reason to get excited, especially in western North Carolina and along the highest elevations of the Tennessee-North Carolina state line.
However, this is not yet a widespread snow forecast for the valleys. The best opportunity for accumulating snow remains above the higher elevations.
The Smokies.LIVE Storm Center will continue tracking the latest forecast models and National Weather Service updates as we get closer to Thursday and Friday.
Winter is making its first serious push into the Smokies. Stay with Meteorologist Kyle Grainger and the Smokies.LIVE Storm Center for continuing Snow Tracker updates.
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