GATLINBURG, Tenn. (Smokies.LIVE Storm Center) — Snow lovers across the Smoky Mountains may have something to get excited about heading into next weekend. Forecast models are beginning to signal the potential for mountain snow across parts of the southern Appalachians Friday into Saturday, Nov. 13-14.
While it is still far too early to determine snowfall accumulations, the latest computer model guidance is showing a colder pattern developing across the region, with western North Carolina potentially emerging as the bigger winner.
GFS vs. European Model
Two of the major forecast models are offering some encouraging signals for mountain snow, although they are not in complete agreement on how much could fall.
The American GFS model is showing a colder pattern moving into the region, with the potential for precipitation to overlap with falling temperatures. Its snowfall projections remain relatively limited in some high-elevation locations.
The European model, also known as the ECMWF, is showing a stronger snow signal for parts of the higher terrain. At some mountain locations, its projections are considerably higher than the American model.
That difference is important. While both models are indicating the potential for a winter-weather setup, the strength, timing and amount of precipitation remain uncertain.
Western North Carolina in the Spotlight
At this point, the higher elevations of western North Carolina appear to have the better opportunity for accumulating snow.
Areas along the Appalachian spine, including the higher elevations of the Great Smoky Mountains and mountains farther east into North Carolina, will need to be watched closely.
This looks primarily like a mountain event. Lower elevations, including Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge and Knoxville, are not currently expected to see the same potential as the higher mountain peaks.
A Few Important Things to Remember
There are several reasons we are keeping expectations in check.
First, this system is still several days away. Forecast models can change significantly as we get closer, especially when trying to pinpoint mountain snowfall.
Second, the ground is still relatively warm. Even if snow begins falling at higher elevations, warmer ground temperatures could limit accumulation, particularly on roads and other surfaces.
Finally, temperatures, precipitation rates and elevation will all play important roles in determining whether snow simply falls or actually begins to accumulate.
The Bottom Line
This is an early Snow Tracker Alert, not a snowfall forecast.
The potential for mountain snow Friday into Saturday is becoming more interesting, and snow lovers may have reason to get excited. Western North Carolina currently looks to have the better opportunity, but there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change.
The Smokies.LIVE Storm Center will continue tracking the GFS and European models as we get closer to next weekend.
Stay tuned for updates from Meteorologist Kyle Grainger!
No responses yet